Is it worth it?

On Thursday, 7th September, NZX-listed Eroad raised eyebrows by announcing their intention to raise capital at $0.70 per share. Going into the trading halt, where the raise was revealed, Eroad had been trading at $1.39 a share – the raise price is approximately half of where it had been trading. To add flavour to the story, Eroad’s directors had recently rejected a non-binding indicative offer from Canadian software firm, Volaris, for all the shares in Eroad at $1.30 per share. Volaris had previously disclosed an 18.74% interest in Eroad, having muscled its way onto Eroad’s register by acquiring stock on-market and from various institutional investors. Once the raise was announced a spokesperson for Volaris asked the question as to how the company could justify issuing new capital at $0.70 per share when Eroad previously judged that Volaris’ $1.30 offer was insufficient.

 

This raises the question, are there other examples of NZX-listed companies where a takeover was declined only for the target company’s share price to flounder once the offer was rejected, the way Eroad’s invariably will once it resumes trading. The answer is yes. In October 2018 Fletcher Building attempted the full acquisition of Steel & Tube Holdings at $1.70 per share. This transaction was swiftly rejected by the Board, chaired by Susan Paterson, who remains Chair of the company. Ms Paterson is also the Chairperson of Eroad. It seems history is repeating. Steel and Tube last traded at $1.17. In recent years it has paid a steady dividend stream but not to the point it would make up the difference between the current share price and the price offered by Fletchers.

 

All of this prompts a question, is turning down seemingly attractive takeover approaches in the name of good governance, and presumably also to extract optimal shareholder value, really worth it? The answer is probably not.

When bad news is good news

When bad news is good news

Bad news followed by a positive outcome is the reverse of what happened last Friday stateside. A bumper jobs report was followed by broad market weakness. Why the divergence? The answer is simple, news that the economy is running hot is greeted with concern that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will likely need to increase rates higher than what is currently priced in by equity and debt markets. Consumer weakness has the reverse effect and highlights that the economy is already slowing down and may give the Fed pause for thought.

The Lucky Country Is Under New Management

The Lucky Country Is Under New Management

Over the course of the Australian election, it became apparent that while Mr Albanese has his roots in the left faction of the Labor party, he has been driven to the centre in order to improve his and his party’s electability. After an initial positive reaction to Australia’s Covid-19 pandemic response voters turned on Mr Morrison and the Coalition Government as issues such as inflation started to bite. It has been observed by some commentators that New Zealand facing high inflation and rising interest rates may lead to the current New Zealand Government suffering the same fate next year as what the Australian Coalition Parties endured.

Budget 2021: Comfort in Familiarity

Budget 2021: Comfort in Familiarity

The lack of anything transformational in the budget suggests one of two things, the first is that the Government is gun shy from previous high profile policy flops. This is unlikely due to the personal popularity that Jacinda Ardern and this Government enjoys, so they certainly have the political capital to spend. The second and more likely is that having tried and failed at the big, bold ideas and now enjoying not having NZ First as the handbrake on anything drastic the Government is happy to go back to what it knows. This takes the form of traditional policy tools, such as taxation and reallocation of wealth to drive the outcomes it is seeking to achieve. In doing this they are making maximum use of a rare MMP environment where one party enjoys total control.

A Market More Complicated

A Market More Complicated

The NZ Govenment and Reserve Bank messages to the markets as to what is going to happen with interest rates is really not clear or aligned. We review a period of four days of very conflicting messaging. Then there is also the extremely strong dairy auction on Tuesday, March 2, which is highly stimulatory for the agriculture sector and NZ economy, adding to the case for increasing interest rates. As such, bets are being taken both ways as to which way interest rates will go next.

Bye Bye 2020 – We Look Forward to 2021

Bye Bye 2020 – We Look Forward to 2021

If one were to look into a crystal ball this time last year, there is no way anyone would have foreseen the events of 2020. COVID-19 has, and will continue to have, a lasting impact on global markets. Not everybody has been affected equally, for example tourism businesses have suffered more than retailers, which have been surprisingly resilient. After a tumultuous start to the year on major exchanges, such as the ASX, Dow Jones and Nasdaq, share prices have recovered strongly and markets are trading at record highs. The theme for the upcoming year is that good quality companies will perform well in a range of market conditions. Our top stock picks for 2021 span the market sectors of retirement/aged care, property, freight forwarding and logistics, food and beverage produce and energy.

Will the plug be pulled out of the bathtub?

Will the plug be pulled out of the bathtub?

Are we likely to see a repeat of March when markets plummeted in the wake of COVID-19? It seems an apt question considering US markets have just completed their worst week since March, the Presidential Elections are days away, USA and Europe have another wave of COVID-19 and are facing further lockdowns and restrictions on people and trade.

In March 2020 some thought we were facing Armageddon, is this the case again?